SECOND EARLY EVENING UPDATE:  AUGUST 1,  2008

Posted at 7:31 p.m. ET

HOUSE GOP LIVES!

Yes, you read the headline right - shocking as it is.

The House Republicans staged a revolt today, disproving coroners' reports that they were beyond help:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the Democrats adjourned the House, turned off the lights and killed the microphones, but Republicans are still on the floor talking gas prices.

Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and other GOP leaders opposed the motion to adjourn the House, arguing that Pelosi's refusal to schedule a vote allowing offshore drilling is hurting the American economy. They have refused to leave the floor after the adjournment motion passed at 11:23 a.m., and they are busy bashing Pelosi and her fellow Democrats for leaving town for the August recess.

Gas prices are the killer issue.  The Republicans have found it out.  Has the sleeping giant awakened?  Is he filled with a terrible resolve?

"This is the people's House," said Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-Mich.). "This is not Pelosi's politiburo."

Good choice of words.  And accurate.

Democratic aides were furious at the GOP stunt, and reporters were kicked out of the Speaker's Lobby, the space next to the House floor where they normally interview lawmakers.

"You're not covering this, are you?" complained one senior Democratic aide. Another called the Republicans "morons" for staying on the floor.

More good.  When Dems start worrying about press coverage, something right is happening.  And I hope they keep using words like "morons."  It just emphasizes their sense of elitism.  It used to be the Democrats who identified with the common man, and it worked.  But they forgot.

GOP Congressman John Shadegg of Arizona got it right:

"I love this," Shadegg told reporters up in the press gallery afterward. "Congress can be so boring. ... This is a kick."

Yup.  Getting on the offensive is a great feeling.  Right, John?

August 1,  2008.      Permalink          

SNIPPET:

Sen. Barack Obama's chief strategist conceded that the Democratic presidential candidate was referring to his race when he said Republicans were trying to scare voters by suggesting Obama "doesn't look like all those other presidents on the dollar bills." 

They denied it at first.  You know a campaign is slipping when it can't get its denials straight.

EARLY EVENING UPDATE:  AUGUST 1,  2008

Posted at 6:58 p.m. ET

CHANGE WE CAN...

Barack Obama has found another change we can believe in.

Now he's talking about...offshore drilling.

Say what?

Doesn't he know that the Commandment "Thou shalt not drill," was handed down from the mount known as Capitol Hill, by the prophet Nancy?  She wrote it longhand on Crane's stationery.

Apparently, Barack is a higher prophet:

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama said Friday he would be willing to support limited additional offshore oil drilling if that's what it takes to enact a comprehensive policy to foster fuel-efficient autos and develop alternate energy sources.

Shifting from his previous opposition to expanded offshore drilling, the Illinois senator told a Florida newspaper he could get behind a compromise with Republicans and oil companies to prevent gridlock over energy.

Republican rival John McCain, who earlier dropped his opposition to offshore drilling, has been criticizing Obama on the stump and in broadcast ads for clinging to his opposition as gasoline prices topped $4 a gallon. Polls indicate these attacks have helped McCain gain ground on Obama.

Amazing what some poll numbers can do.  Do you get the feeling that Obama would abandon the Bill of Rights itself if the polls showed it was suddenly unpopular?

What this new shift by Obama indicates is that McCain is now driving the debate - exactly what should be happening.  Keep Obama on the defensive.  Make him cave on issues.  Show him as a man with no deep convictions.

The numbers are moving.  This can turn out to be fun.

August 1, 2008.      Permalink          

AFTERNOON UPDATE:  AUGUST 1,  2008

Posted at 2:28 p.m. ET

TRACKERS

Today's trackers continue to reflect Barack Obama's dramative dive downward.

As reported earlier in SNIPPETS, Rasmussen has Obama up one over McCain. It was two yesterday.

And now Gallup reports a tied race.  Gallup had Obama up one yesterday.

These are the worst numbers for Obama in some time.  However, please note that they can go in the other direction, very quickly.

It's obvious that Obama got nothing from his trip except aggravation and jet lag.  Well, maybe they gave him frequent flyer miles.  Or one of those free companion tickets. 

It's much too early to say that the sainted candidate is in trouble, but he surely didn't expect this mess this early.  Remember, though, that in the primaries he got progressively weaker toward the end.  The more people learned about him, the less they liked. 

Please also note that the trackers still don't have McCain ahead.  Obama may be weakening, but there's little evidence of a new love affair with McCain.  He's got to move to strengthen his newfound opportunity.  An exciting v.p. choice wouldn't hurt.

August 1, 2008.       Permalink          

SNIPPET:

First tracker of the day is out.  Rasmussen has Obama up one over McCain.  Yesterday, it was two.

And Obama saved up so long for that trip to Europe.  Didn't do him a bit of good. 

FRIDAY:  AUGUST 1,  2008

Posted at 7:30 a.m. ET

THE CAMPAIGN

The campaign has turned suddenly rough. Senator Obama clearly is playing the race card, earlier than I'd expected, just as he played it against the Clintons.  I heard a Democratic Party operative say on TV last night that even describing Mr. Obama as arrogant or presumptuous is racist, as those terms are never applied to whites.  Someone else gently pointed out that they're used against whites all the time.

And Senator McCain has taken off at least one glove and is starting to land blows against the sainted candidate.  This he must do if the campaign is going to resemble a race for the White House, and not a race to see who'll be president of the senior class.  Politics is a blood sport, and attacks, if honest and thoughtful, have an important place.  Who else will raise legitimate questions about a candidate besides his opponent?  Do we have an independent commission to do that?  Maybe we should establish the Department of Finger Wagging, just so candidates don't have to lower themselves.  I don't think it will happen soon.

I recall, some decades ago, that any discussion of big-city crime was labeled "racist."  If the calamity was finally discussed, we were told by the self-appointed protectors of sensitivity that crime was caused by "socio-economic" factors, and nothing else.  Yet, even if we agreed to discuss these "socio-economic" factors, we soon learned that we'd be permitted to discuss only those that were approved by our intellectual betters.  There was a veritable list of proscribed "factors," like fatherlessness or cultural attitudes.

We've seen that same phenomenon in this campaign.  If questions are raised about some of the people with whom Senator Obama collaborated, it's "guilt by association."  If we ask about the views of some of those who shaped him, it's "McCarthyism."  If we dare probe too deeply into his family's cultural history, it's "pure racism."  I think we're beginning to break through these barriers now, helped by some in the press who finally realize that Mr. Obama should be examined as any other candidate would be.  The credibility of journalism, what's left of it, is on the line.

So I look forward to heightened combat in the weeks ahead, leading up to the conventions.  We should not fear it, as long as it's conducted with reasonable integrity and with respect for the electorate.  We know what John McCain is made of.  He's proved it.  Let's see if Mr. Obama has the toughness required of the job.  A series of sharp encounters is one way to find out.  We need a president, not a teleprompter reader.  There really is a difference.

August 1,  2008.       Permalink          

SNIPPET:

Bulletin:  According to the Los Angeles Times, Hollywood is deeply upset with John McCain over his ad charging that Obama is just a celebrity. 

I've worked there.  Nothing upsets Hollywood more than the truth.

THE RACE RACE

The Politico dissects the introduction of race into the campaign, and does a reasonable job of explaining what's in it for each of the candidates. 

Behind the accusations from both sides in the last 24 hours lies a furious battle to frame the racially charged conflict many in both campaigns have been girding for and to find effective ways to blame the other campaign for any unpalatable racial subtext to a race that — in theory — could actually show the better angels of America’s nature.

Both sides face risks and opportunities: Obama's pioneering status is inspiring to some voters and discomfiting to others, and the way in which race is discussed may push voters toward or away from him. McCain could benefit from discomfort with race or he could — like Hillary Rodham Clinton, his predecessor in battling Obama — be distracted and ultimately diminished by constant charges of racism, accurate or not.

McCain aides say their goal is to pre-empt what they believe is Obama's effort to paint any conventional campaign attacks as race-based.

Obama’s aim, in the view of the McCain camp: "to delegitimize any line of attack against him," said McCain aide Steve Schmidt.

Schmidt clearly observed what happened to Bill Clinton during his wife's campaign, when he was accused of racism in his criticisms of Obama.

"Say whatever you want about Bill Clinton," Schmidt said, "but it's deeply unfair to suggest his criticism of Obama was race-based. President Clinton was a force for unity in this country on this subject. Every American should be proud of his record as both a governor and president. But we knew it was coming in our direction because they did it against a President of the United State of their own party."

A former chief strategist to Hillary Clinton, Howard Wolfson, echoed Schmidt's comparison.

"I think the McCain camp watched our primary on the Democratic side very carefully and they know that any accusation of racial divisiveness can be very, very harmful for a candidate's prospects," Wolfson said on Fox News Thursday, adding that the allegations against Clinton were unfair. "They heard something that Senator Obama said and they felt they had to respond quickly to make sure that nobody got the impression that they were engaged in those kind of racial politics."

And...

McCain aides said they'd been on guard against charges of racism, anticipating the day the issue would arise. Obama made similar comments last month at a fundraiser in Florida. "And did I mention he's black?" Obama asked, mockingly imitating what he predicted "Republicans" would say about him.

But, Schmidt noted, the comments, taking place at a Friday-night fundraiser with only a pool reporter and not long after the Democratic primary wrapped up, were not widely picked up. And Obama didn't specifically mention McCain by name — as he did on the campaign trail this week.

"He injected this yesterday," Schmidt said. "We are compelled to respond. Tomorrow, if he does not do it again, we will not talk about it again."

And...

Republicans outside the campaign see another motivation on work by the GOP nominee. After weeks of Obama driving the race on his terms, McCain is now trying to go on the offensive and not let the Democrat set the contours on what may be the defining issue of the campaign.

"I believe the McCain camp recognizes they need to define Obama and knock him on his heels every single day," said Scott Reed, a Republican strategist who ran Bob Dole's 1996 campaign.

"For a week he's been on defense," said Republican consultant Phil Musser of Obama. "It's the first time in a while — and he doesn't like it."

That's correct.  Obama has proven an awful defensive player.  He's thin-skinned, and seems to get confused when under attack.  He's not much of an off-the-cuff speaker.  He must be kept on defense.  The New York Times will whine about McCain going negative, but The New York Times won't decide this election.  It may not even decide its own future. 

This was the most important week of the campaign thus far, because the rules changed, and John McCain changed them. 

August 1, 2008.      Permalink          

SNIPPET:

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The clock is ticking for Iran to respond to an offer by major powers on its nuclear program, but European diplomats say they are ready to wait a few more days beyond Saturday's informal deadline for an answer.

Informal?  When did it become informal?  In fact, it was firmly stated.  But Europe seems to be backing down again, and Condi Rice doesn't seem to care.

PELOSI'S CRUSADE

It isn't only Barack Obama who's on a godlike journey.  Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi seems to have become a certified disciple.  Charles Krauthammer notes the role, and the damage she can do:

WASHINGTON -- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi opposes lifting the moratorium on drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and on the Outer Continental Shelf. She won't even allow it to come to a vote. With $4 gas having massively shifted public opinion in favor of domestic production, she wants to protect her Democratic members from having to cast an anti-drilling election-year vote. Moreover, given the public mood, she might even lose. This cannot be permitted. Why? Because as she explained to Politico: "I'm trying to save the planet; I'm trying to save the planet."

A lovely sentiment. But has Pelosi actually thought through the moratorium's actual effects on the planet?

Are we kidding here?  When has Nancy Pelosi ever thought through anything?  And when you're a savior, why should you have to?

We need the stuff to run our cars and planes and economy. Where does it come from?

Places like Nigeria where chronic corruption, environmental neglect and resulting unrest and instability lead to pipeline explosions, oil spills and illegal siphoning by the poverty-stricken population -- which leads to more spills and explosions. Just this week, two Royal Dutch Shell pipelines had to be shut down because bombings by local militants were causing leaks into the ground.

Compare the Niger Delta to the Gulf of Mexico where deep-sea U.S. oil rigs withstood Hurricanes Katrina and Rita without a single undersea well suffering a significant spill.

You mean something good came out of Katrina?  Sacrilege.  Heresy.  Krauthammer the apostate.  Kill him with McNuggets!

Does Pelosi imagine that with so much of America declared off-limits, the planet is less injured as drilling shifts to Kazakhstan and Venezuela and Equatorial Guinea? That Russia will be more environmentally scrupulous than we in drilling in its Arctic?

More red bashing.  So typical of the neocons.  They'll attack Russia, you know.

Democrats want no oil from the American OCS or ANWR. But of course they do want more oil. From OPEC. From where Americans don't vote. From places Democratic legislators can't see.

They have practice at it.  They didn't notice the Cambodian genocide either.  Not convenient.

The other panacea, yesterday's rage, is biofuels: We can't drill our way out of the crisis, it seems, but we can greenly grow our way out. By now, however, it is blindingly obvious even to Democrats that biofuels are a devastating force for environmental degradation. It has led to the rape of "lungs of the world" rainforests in Indonesia and Brazil as huge tracts have been destroyed to make room for palm oil and sugar plantations.

But we don't see it, dearie, so it isn't happening.  Why can't Krauthammer understand that?

This to prevent drilling on an area in the Arctic one-sixth the size of Dulles Airport that leaves untouched a refuge one-third the size of Britain.

There are a dizzying number of economic and national security arguments for drilling at home: a $700 billion oil balance-of-payment deficit, a gas tax (equivalent) levied on the paychecks of American workers and poured into the treasuries of enemy and terror-supporting regimes, growing dependence on unstable states of the Persian Gulf and Caspian basin. Pelosi and the Democrats stand athwart shouting: We don't care. We come to save the planet!

They seem blissfully unaware that the argument for their drill-there-not-here policy collapses on its own environmental terms.

It's a religious matter, Krauthammer.  We don't question religion.  Apparently, you're an atheist or somethin'.

August 1, 2008.      Permalink